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2020年第一个悬念来了打伊朗12万美军够吗伊朗
2020-01-08 01:03   来源:  www.seebetterlear.com   评论:0 点击:

2020年第一个悬念来了打伊朗12万美军够吗伊朗1月3日美军打死伊朗境外最高军事指挥官、圣城旅长卡西姆·苏莱

  1月3日美军打死伊朗境外最高军事指挥官、圣城旅长卡西姆·苏莱曼尼之后,有关两国走向兵戎相见的话题越来越热。

On January 3, the subject of the two countries heading for military encounters grew hotter after U.S. forces killed Qassim Suleimani, the country's top military commander outside Iran.

  但生活不止一次告诉我们,“兵者,主凶”,两个在全球乃至地区都有超级体量的大国驳火,遭殃的不止是自己,还连带了整个世界。那么,面对战争的悬念,我们该如何理性思考呢?

But life tells us more than once that the \"soldiers, the main culprits,\" the two great powers with super-masses in the world and even in the region, have been blamed not only on themselves, but also on the whole world. So, in the face of the suspense of war, how can we think rationally?

  1月5日,美国总统特朗普在推特扬言:“伊朗正明目张胆地讨论要袭击某些美国目标作为报复……我警告,如果伊朗胆敢袭击任何美国人或目标,我们就要对你们52处目标(代表1979年遭伊朗大学生扣留的美国外交官人数)发起又快又恨的打击,美国不想再听威胁了!”

On January 5, US President Donald Trump tweeted:\" Iran is openly discussing attacking certain US targets as retaliation... I warn that if iran dares to attack any americans or targets, we're going to start a quick, bitter attack on 52 of your targets, representing the number of american diplomats detained by iran's college students in 1979, and america doesn't want to hear threats anymore.\"

  倘若事态发展到公开军事对抗的地步,美国会按何种脚本攻打伊朗?伊朗将如何应对?这场军事冲突又会如何影响油市,尤其是世界其他地区的石油供给?

What kind of script would the United States use to attack Iran if it were to develop into an open military confrontation? How will Iran respond? How will this military conflict affect oil markets, especially in the rest of the world?

  就现实看,两国都没把取得“古典式”军事胜利——战败方在战胜方的坦克面前签署无条件投降书——作为目标。

In reality, neither country has targeted a "classical "military victory – where the defeated side signs an unconditional surrender in front of the victor's tanks.

  目前美国部署在伊朗周边的军力有多少呢?在伊朗东北部的中亚地区,美国当年曾以“反恐”名义打进了不少“楔子”,但现在那里的兵力逐渐被挤走,各军事基地相继关闭,即便残存有少量美军善后人员,也无法凑出一支成建制的打击伊朗的力量。

How much of the U.S. military capacity is currently deployed around Iran? In central asia, north-east iran, the u.s. used to \"counter terrorism\" in the name of a number of \"wedge \", but now the strength there is gradually squeezed away, military bases have been closed, even if there are a small number of u.s. troops left behind, cannot form a force against iran.

  美军在沙特拥有朱拜勒海军基地及宰赫兰空军基地,两年前曾有报道称,美军在这两个基地共驻有5000人左右。

The U.S. military owns a naval base in Saudi Arabia and an airbase in Zahran, where it was reported two years ago that it had about 5,000 troops.

  在卡塔尔,驻有美军中央司令部及其所属的空军前沿指挥所、美国空军第609航空航天作战中心、空军第379远征联队,总兵力近万人。

In Qatar, the United States Central Command and its Air Force Forward Command, the 609th Air and Space Operations Center of the United States Air Force, and the 379th Expeditionary Unit of the Air Force have a total strength of nearly 10,000 troops.

  在伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争中,参与空袭的美军战略轰炸机皆从这里起飞。如果美伊开战,驻扎该基地的千余名美军士兵必将参战。

U.S. strategic bombers involved in the air strikes took off from Iraq and Afghanistan. If the U.S. and Iraq go to war, the more than 1,000 U.S. soldiers stationed at the base will certainly go to war.

  另据最新消息,美国海军“杜鲁门”号航母打击大队将抵达阿拉伯海,再结合之前的“基萨奇山”号两栖戒备群,舰员及搭载的海军陆战队共约4500人。这还不算临时派驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地的1个爱国者PAC-3地空导弹连和第20远征轰炸中队,累计千余人。

According to the latest news, the u. s. navy \"truman\" aircraft carrier strike brigade will arrive in the arabian sea, combined with the previous \"kisachi mountain\" amphibious alert group, the crew and carrying the marines a total of about 4500 people. This does not count a Patriot PAC-3 air-to-surface missile company and 20th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron temporarily stationed at the Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar, with a total of more than 1,000 people.

  如此算来,美军能用于对伊作战的部队,满打满算不过7万人。如果除去必须留驻阿富汗、伊拉克等热点地区的“维稳”力量,美军能立即用于对伊朗动武的兵力着实不够。

In this way, the u. s. army can be used to combat iraq, the full number of troops counted as 70,000. It is not enough for the U.S. military to immediately use its military force against Iran if it removes the \"stability \"force that must remain in hot spots such as Afghanistan and Iraq.

  2019年6月,《纽约时报》曾曝光美国中央司令部有一份“OPLAN1002-18作战计划”,根据美军通用计划和命名规则,其含义是《2018年版海湾地区战争计划》。根据曝光的内容,涉及美军夺取伊朗胡齐斯坦省及若干波斯湾港口,而开展这样的行动仅需两个步兵师、一个坦克旅和一个海军陆战师,可即便如此,对伊用兵的下限也得要12万人。

In June 2019, The New York Times revealed that the U.S. Central Command had an \"OPLAN 1002-18 operational plan,\" meaning the 2018 edition of the Gulf War Plan, according to the U.S. General Plan and Naming Rules. According to the exposure, u.s. forces involved in the seizure of iran's huzistan province and a number of gulf ports, and such an operation required only two infantry divisions, a tank brigade and a marine, but even so, the lower limit for iraqis was 120,000.

  当然,从有限目标出发,如果特朗普痛下杀手,夺取“伊朗珍宝”胡齐斯坦是比较合适的,该省居民主体是阿拉伯人,向来有分离主义传统。

Of course, from a limited target, if Trump hurts the killer, it is more appropriate to seize the \"Iranian treasure \"Huzistan, the main body of the province's residents is Arab, has always had a separatist tradition.

  一旦美军登陆胡齐斯坦,驻有美军的科威特就能成为远征军的后方,美国在海湾的第五舰队将从右翼提供掩护,而伊朗军队无论从正面和右翼反攻都将极为不便——因为该省西部群山绵延,只有几条便道可走。

Once U.S. troops landed in Khuzestan, U.S.-based Kuwait could be the rear of the Expeditionary Force, the U.S. Fifth Fleet in the Gulf would provide cover from the right, and Iranian forces would be extremely inconvenient to counter-attack from both the front and the right – with only a few sidewalks in the province's western hills.

  此种情形下,美国的确能够以十分有限之兵力实施对伊行动,然后把德黑兰逼到谈判桌旁——即使表面上没有让后者无条件投降。

In such cases, the US can indeed carry out operations against Iraq with very limited force, and then force Tehran to the negotiating table – even if it does not ostensibly surrender the latter unconditionally.

  不可否认,伊朗46万军队(含正规军和革命卫队)总体技术水平相当于当年萨达姆军队,与美军存在隔代差距。

There is no denying that the overall technical level of Iran's 460,000 troops (including the regular army and the Revolutionary Guard) is comparable to that of Saddam Hussein's, and there is a generational gap with the US military.

  迄今,伊朗军政高层最关心的莫过于自身空防能力能否够用。面对美国环绕伊朗部署的陆基航空兵和航母舰载航空兵,伊朗所要保护的重要目标太多了:德黑兰核中心、纳坦兹浓缩铀中心、负责导弹科技生产的沙希德·赫马特工业集团(SHIG)……

So far, Iran's top military officials are more concerned than its own air defense capabilities. There are too many important targets for Iran to protect against U.S. land-based and carrier-based aviation around Iran: Tehran's nuclear center, Natanz's uranium enrichment center, and SHIG )……, which produces missile technology

  目前,伊朗地面防空大体成型,俄罗斯两年前交付的四个营S-300PMU2“骄子”远程防空系统(使用速度达马赫的48N6E2拦截弹),29个营“雷神-M1”营属野战防空系统,几部先进的“信仰-373”地空导弹,已大量装备亚洲国家先进的无源照射、制导相控阵雷达,此外,还有大量俄罗斯和国产远程搜索雷达,例如“纳吉姆-802”远程搜索雷达,俄制“天空-SVU”有源相控阵米波预警雷达,“盖德尔夜”米波导弹预警雷达。

At present, Iranian ground air defense is roughly shaped, with four battalion S-300PMU2\" proud \"long-range air defense systems delivered by Russia two years ago (using 48N6E2 interceptors at the speed of Damah),29 battalion\" Raytheon-M1\" is a field air defense system, several advanced \"Faith-373\" ground-altitude missiles have been heavily equipped with advanced passive irradiation and guided phased radar in Asian countries, in addition to a large number of Russian and domestic long-range search radars, such as\" Najim-802\" long-range search radar, and Russian-made \"Sky-SvU\" active-phase controlled wave warning radar, and \"Night-Derbo\" warning radar.

  这些雷达已经联网,构成伊朗反导网络中心系统,几年来已在德黑兰附近成立防空反导司令部,由上述地空导弹系统、其他系统提供掩护。

These radars have been connected to each other and constitute the Iranian anti-missile network's central system. Over the years, an anti-aircraft anti-missile command has been set up near Tehran, covered by the above-mentioned ground-air missile systems and other systems.

  “盖德尔夜”雷达不仅能够探测到美国军战术战斗机,而且能够探测到沙特战略导弹部队司令部刚试射的DF-3A中程弹道导弹(距离近1100公里)。伊朗雷达分队在西部空中方向(波斯湾)装备多频段雷达探测装备,可以预先建立灵活的梯次防空,有效抗击美国海空军高强度的密集导弹突击。

“The“ Gedel Night radar can detect not only U.S. military tactical fighters, but also the DF-3A intermediate-range ballistic missile (nearly 1,100 km) newly tested by the Saudi Strategic Missile Force Command. Iranian radar units in the western air direction (persian gulf) equipped with multi-band radar detection equipment, can establish a flexible air defense ladder in advance to effectively resist the u. s. naval and air force high-intensity dense missile assault.

  但问题是,如果美军的攻击部署是从澳大利亚开始的呢?要知道,2014年空袭“伊斯兰国”的美军B-1B轰炸机是从澳大利亚跨越印度洋飞来的。

But the question is, what if the U.S. military's attack deployment started in Australia? You know, the U.S. military B-1B bombers that struck ISIS in 2014 flew across the Indian Ocean from Australia.

  如今,澳大利亚是美国不次于北约的铁杆盟友,尤其在为B-1B“枪骑兵”战略轰炸机所用SKN-2440惯导系统存储器输入战略数字地图坐标数据方面,澳大利亚起着关键作用。

Today, Australia is a strong ally of the United States, no less than NATO, and plays a key role in inputting strategic digital map coordinates for the SKN-2440 INS memory used by the B-1B \"Ranger\" strategic bombers.

  最有可能的作战场景,是美军使用澳大利亚廷达尔、阿姆别尔里空军基地作为B-1B机群的中转机场,从南部、东南部空中方向(阿拉伯海和巴基斯坦)发射AGM-158B隐形战术巡航导弹(JASSM-ER)打击伊朗设施。澳大利亚机场的人员、设备正在为“枪骑兵”的驻扎、维护忙得不亦乐乎,这已尽人皆知。澳美空军经常举行联合空军演习,多个空军基地不仅经常驻扎B-1B轰炸机,KC-10A战略加油机也经常光顾。

The most likely combat scenario is the launch of the AGM-158B stealth tactical cruise missile (JASSM-ER) from the southern, south-eastern air directions (the Arabian Sea and Pakistan) by U.S. forces using Australia's Tyndall, Ambeli Air Force Base as a transit airport for the B-1B fleet against Iranian installations. It is well known that the personnel and equipment of the Australian airport are busy with the stationing and maintenance of the \"Gun Riders \". The Australian and American Air Force regularly holds joint air force exercises, with several air bases stationed not only in B-1B bombers, but also in KC-10A strategic refueling aircraft.

  如果这样做,那么美军完全不必担心伊朗导弹报复,而且远距离打击可使B-1B集群从南部马克兰、东南部库赫鲁德山区逼近伊朗腹地,伊朗防空体系在这些战役方向的密度不大,而且存在大量无法监视的盲区,意味着伊朗防御存在“缺口”。当数百枚低空飞行的巡航导弹突然到来时,预警时间很短,将令伊朗防空部队大伤脑筋。

In doing so, the U.S. military would have no fear of Iranian missile retaliation, and a long-range strike would have allowed the B-1B cluster to approach the Iranian heartland from the southern Makran, south-eastern Kuhrud, where Iranian air defense systems were not dense enough, and where there were numerous unmonitored blind spots, implying a \"gap \"in Iranian defense. When hundreds of low-flying cruise missiles arrive suddenly, the warning time is short, which will be a big worry for Iranian air defences.

  总的来看,网络赛博战攻击手段就是物理植入和无线接入。相对于民用基础设施网络(如电网、金融网络、电信网络、交通网络等),军用目标大多与国际互联网隔绝。特别是导弹武器系统,其计算机指控网络往往自成体系,因而不易被外界物理入侵。

In general, cybergame attacks are physical implantation and wireless access. military targets are mostly isolated from the internet relative to civilian infrastructure networks (e.g., grid, financial network, telecommunications network, transportation network, etc.). Missile weapon systems, in particular, have computer allegations that networks are often self-contained and are therefore not easily physically invaded by the outside world.

  然而,严格意义上,与互联网隔绝的军用网络并非无懈可击。2010年“震网”病毒袭击伊朗核设施事件,就是最好的例证。“震网”是恶性蠕虫电脑病毒,其攻击目标是工业领域广泛使用的可编程控制器(PLC),这种病毒会感染计算机Windows操作系统,然后在计算机中搜索一种西门子公司的PLC控制软件。如果没有找到PLC,“震网”就会潜伏下来,一旦发现存在PLC控制软件,便会修改PLC控制软件代码,进而向机器发出错误指令。

Strictly, however, military networks isolated from the internet are not unassailable. The 2010 quake-net attack on iran's nuclear facilities was the best example. \"Shocknet\" is a malignant worm computer virus that targets the widely used programmable controller (PLC) in the industrial world, which infects the computer's Windows operating system and then searches the computer for a Siemens PLC control software. If the PLC is not found, the \"shock net\" will lurk, and once the PLC control software is found, the PLC control software code will be modified, and then the error instruction will be issued to the machine.

  另一种可能就是无线入侵技术。如果美国对伊朗军用网络发起有效攻击,这种可能性更大——尽管此类手段对美国赛博战能力要求非常高,至少需要突破信息截获技术、无线入侵技术、计算机漏洞检测技术、木马病毒植入技术四道门槛。

Another possibility is wireless intrusion technology. This is even more likely if the US launches an effective attack on Iran ' s military network – despite the fact that such an approach requires a high level of US cyber-attendance, requiring at least a breakthrough in the four thresholds of information capture, wireless intrusion, computer vulnerability detection, and Trojan virus implantation.

  理论上,除同一导弹阵地各型装备之间用电缆连接并传输信息外,不同导弹阵地之间及其与指挥所之间的网络联结都是无线传输,包括短波超短波通信、微波通信、卫星通信等手段,这就为美国采取无线入侵手段创造了客观条件。

In theory, in addition to connecting and transmitting information by cable between the various types of equipment of the same missile position, the network connections between the different missile positions and their command post are all wireless transmission, including short-wave ultrashort wave communication, microwave communication, satellite communication and so on, which creates objective conditions for the United States to adopt wireless intrusion means.

  斯诺登披露,美国国家安全局下属的“先进网络技术组织”已研发接入设备、窃密软件、无线基站共3大类、49种针对隔离网络的情报窃取工具。此外,鉴于美国在基础信息技术、计算机技术、网络技术、ISR(情报、监视与侦察)技术等方面的雄厚积淀,以及其在赛博战方面的长期、系统的经营,美国已具备无线网络攻击的能力。

Snowden revealed that the nsa's \"advanced network technology group\" has developed access devices, stolen software, wireless base stations in three broad categories, and 49 types of information theft tools for isolated networks. In addition, the United States already has the capability to attack wireless networks, given its strong accumulation of basic information technology, computer technology, network technology, ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) technology, and its long-term and systematic operations in Cyberwarfare.


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