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海通证券姜超地产时代落幕股市迎来黄金十年
2020-01-08 02:03   来源:  www.seebetterlear.com   评论:0 点击:

海通证券姜超地产时代落幕股市迎来黄金十年19年股市大幅领涨。站在2020年初,回顾过去一年中国的各类资产价

  19年股市大幅领涨。站在2020年初,回顾过去一年中国的各类资产价格表现,股市可谓是一骑绝尘,代表性的涨幅达到36%,这也是过去10年中的第二大涨幅。银行理财和债券位居黄金之后,3个月银行理财平均收益率为%,中债国债总指数上涨%。房市表现位居第五,全国百城的二手房价格平均上涨%。货币基金和银行存款位于房市之后,余额宝平均年化收益率为%;1年期银行存款利率为%,上浮30%以后平均约为2%。而各种P2P排名最后,由于爆雷不断,很多投资人血本无归。

The stock market surged in 19 years. At the beginning of 2020, looking back at China's asset-price performance over the past year, the stock market was a deadbeat, with a representative 36% gain, the second-biggest gain in the past decade. The average yield on bank finance was% in the three-month period, followed by a% rise in the total Chinese debt index. Housing market performance ranked fifth, the country's 100 cities of second-hand housing prices rose on average%. The average annualized rate of return for Yu' e Bao is% after the housing market for money funds and bank deposits, and the one-year bank deposit rate is%, which is about 2% after the 30% rise. And all kinds of P2P ranking last, because of exploding thunder, many investors lost their blood.

  股市难得连续上涨。虽然2019年的股市表现非常不错,但是对于2020年,不少人依然信心不足,原因是中国股市的历史表现不太稳定,很少出现连续两年上涨。以沪深300指数为例,过去10年只在2014年和2015年出现过连续上涨,而且2015年的涨幅几乎可以忽略不计。历史数据表明,中国股市出现连续上涨其实是小概率事件。

The stock market rarely goes up in a row. Although the stock market has performed very well in 2019, many are still under-confident for 2020, because the historical performance of the Chinese stock market is not very stable and there are few consecutive two-year gains. The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index, for example, has seen only consecutive gains in the past 10 years in 2014 and 2015, and the gains in 2015 have been almost negligible. Historical data show that a continuous rise in China's stock market is actually a small probability event.

  过去十年房市领涨。与之相反的是,在过去10年,中国的房市表现的异常坚挺,从未出现过连续两年下跌。以全国百城房价为例,在过去10年中除了在2014年小幅下跌,在其余的年份均保持稳定上涨。

The housing market has led the rise over the past decade. In contrast, China's housing market has been unusually strong over the past decade and has never seen two consecutive years of decline. Take the nation's 100-city house prices, which have been steadily rising in the last 10 years except for a small fall in 2014.

  第一种是资产本身所产生的收益,可以理解为资产的内在价值,包括存款、债券等的利息,股票的盈利,房子的租金等等。最容易理解的是银行存款,目前上浮以后的1年期存款利率为2%左右,这也是持有银行存款1年以后的预期回报率。而持有1年期国债,1年后的预期回报率为%。持有1年期银行理财,目前的预期回报率为%。持有P2P,预期未来1年的利息回报是%。同样的道理,目前如果持有一线城市房产,1年的预期租金回报率为%。如果持有A股沪深300指数的股票,未来1年企业预期盈利与当前股价的比值是8%。

The first is the income generated by the asset itself, which can be understood as the intrinsic value of the asset, including the interest on deposits, bonds, etc., the profit of the stock, the rent of the house, and so on. The easiest to understand is bank deposits, which are now at around 2% of the floating-year deposit rate, which is the expected rate of return after a year of holding a bank deposit. while holding 1-year treasury bonds, the expected return after 1 year is%. With one-year bank management, the current expected rate of return is%. holding P2P, the expected interest return for the next 1 year is%. For the same reason, the expected rate of return on rent for a year is% for a first-tier city. If it holds A-shares in the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index, the ratio of expected earnings to current stock prices over the next year is 8%.

  如果直接看各类资产的收益率,好像P2P是最高的,股票排第二,银行理财排第三,存款和国债排第四,而房地产排在最后。但是大家都知道,这个排序是很不靠谱的。一方面,这个收益率只是预期收益率,到期之后未必能够兑现。以股市为例,虽然沪深300指数的ROE高达12%,但是上市公司给大家的分红并不高,目前沪深300指数的股息率为%,也就和存款利率相当。

If you look directly at the yield on all kinds of assets, it seems that P2P is the highest, stocks are the second, bank finance is the third, deposits and treasury bonds are the fourth, and real estate is the last. But as we all know, the order is unreliable. On the one hand, this rate of return is only expected yield, after maturity may not be able to deliver. In the stock market for example, although the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index has a high ROE of 12%, listed companies do not pay a high share of dividends.

  另一方面,我们还必须考虑资产的第二种回报,也就是资产本身的增值与贬值,可以理解为资产的外在价值变化。

On the other hand, we must also consider the second kind of return of assets, that is, the appreciation and depreciation of assets themselves, which can be understood as the change of external value of assets.

  最容易理解的同样是银行存款与国债,到期之后本金基本上是不变的。但这也不是绝对的,例如阿根廷等国的国债也发生过违约。而过去中国的银行存款本金都是安全的,但按照最新的银行存款保险制度,只有50万以下的居民存款是保本的,万一发生银行破产,超过50万以上的存款其实也有本金损失的风险。

The same is true of bank deposits and treasury bonds, whose principal is essentially the same after maturity. But this is not absolute, for example, national debt defaults in countries such as Argentina. And in the past, the principal amount of bank deposits in china was safe, but according to the latest bank deposit insurance system, only less than half a million resident deposits are capital-preserving, in case of bank bankruptcy, more than half a million deposits have the risk of loss of principal.

  而P2P之类的投资之所以是个大陷阱,在于其承诺了很高的利率,但是在到期之后的本金未必能够兑付。截止19年末,还在运行的P2P平台只剩456家,而累计问题平台达到2906家,这说明很多投资人的本金消失了。

Investment such as P2P is a big trap because it promises high interest rates, but the principal after maturity may not be able to meet. By the end of 19, only 456 P2P platforms were still in operation, while the cumulative number of problem platforms had reached 2,906, indicating that the principal of many investors had disappeared.

  而房地产在过去10年表现优异,并不在于房子的租金,而是在于房产的增值。以中原地产一线城市指数为例,过去10年上涨了190%,年均涨幅高达11%。而同期沪深300指数小幅上涨15%,年均涨幅仅为%,而同期的上证指数甚至还下跌了7%。

Real estate has excelled over the past decade, not in the rental but in the appreciation of the property. Taking the index of first-tier cities in the Central Plains as an example, it has risen 190 per cent over the past 10 years, up an average of 11 per cent a year. In the same period, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index edged up 15 per cent, an average annual gain of just%, while the Shanghai index even fell 7 per cent.

  因此,过去10年中国各类资产回报的表现,教给我们一个非常重要的道理:到底应该投资哪一类资产,不能简单看利息的回报,更要重视资产的增值,低利率但是增值多的资产,要远好于高利率但是贬值多的资产。

Therefore, the performance of all kinds of asset returns in china over the past 10 years has taught us a very important truth: what kind of asset should be invested should not simply depend on the return of interest, but pay more attention to the appreciation of assets, low interest rates but more value-added assets, far better than higher interest rates but more devalued assets.

  为什么过去10年房产在增值,而股市表现平平。为何到了19年股市大幅增值,房市表现平平,P2P甚至大幅贬值?

Why has property gained value over the past decade and the stock market has been flat. Why did the stock market increase substantially in 19 years, the housing market was flat and the P2P even depreciated substantially?

  在过去的10年,中国广义货币M2的年均增速为13%,包含表外货币之后的银行总负债年均增速为15%,均远高于同期8%的GDP增速。这意味着虽然中国的通胀率表面上不高,但真实的通胀预期一直居高不下,货币一直在对内贬值。

Over the past decade, China's broad currency, M2, has grown at an average annual rate of 13 per cent, including an average of 15 per cent in total bank liabilities after off-balance-sheet currencies, well above GDP growth of 8 per cent in the same period. This means that while China's inflation rate is superficially low, real inflation expectations have been high and the currency has been devaluing internally.

  而房地产是实物资产,尤其是在一二线城市,土地的供应是有限的,所以大家理所当然把房地产看做是对抗货币贬值的核心资产,将13-15%的货币增速视为买房的预期回报率,而一二线城市房价的真实涨幅也与之非常接近。

And real estate is a real asset, especially in the first and second tier cities, the supply of land is limited, so people naturally regard real estate as the core asset against currency depreciation,13-15% currency growth as the expected rate of return on home purchases, and the real increase in housing prices in the first and second tier cities is very close.

  很多人不理解,货币超发的话,不应该是对房子和股市都有利吗?凭什么大家只买房子不买股票?这个解释不对吧!

A lot of people don't understand. Shouldn't money be good for both the house and the stock market? Why don't everyone buy a house instead of a stock? This explanation is wrong!

  其实房子和股票是有区别的,第一个区别是在供给上。至少在过去给大家的印象是,一二线城市的土地供应是有限的,但是股票的供给似乎是无限的,因而应对货币超发的时候,供应有限的一二线城市房产更能保值。

In fact, there is a difference between house and stock, the first difference is in supply. At least in the past, the impression has been that the supply of land in first- and second-tier cities is limited, but the supply of stock seems to be unlimited, so that the supply of limited first- and second-tier city properties can be better protected in response to currency overhang.

  但是供给上的差异其实正在发生变化。比如说虽然一二线城市土地供应有限,但是现在通过高铁把一二线城市和三四五线城市紧密相连,考虑三四五线的土地供应之后,房子其实也没有那么稀缺。而在股票注册制改革之后,退市制度也更加严格,垃圾公司的大量退市和仙股化,意味着优质股票的供给也是有限的。

But the supply gap is actually changing. For example, although the supply of land in the first and second tier cities is limited, but now through the high-speed rail link between the first and second tier cities and the third and fifth tier cities, considering the supply of land in the third and fifth tier, the house is not so scarce. And after the reform of the stock registration system, the delisting system is also more stringent, and the mass delisting and immortalization of garbage companies mean that the supply of high-quality stocks is also limited.

  另一个区别其实更重要,在于房子是实物资产,而股票是金融资产。房子可以用来住,尤其是自住的情况下,大家对租金回报率并不敏感。但是股票作为金融资产,是需要和其他的金融资产做比较的。而在货币超发的环境下,真实通胀率和真实利率水平都是居高不下,这就使得股票相对于其他高收益率的金融资产失去了投资价值。

Another difference is more important because the house is a physical asset and the stock is a financial asset. Houses can be used to live, especially in the case of self-living, people are not sensitive to the rate of return on rent. But stocks as financial assets need to be compared with other financial assets. In an environment of currency overshooting, the real inflation rate and the real interest rate level are high, which makes stocks lose their investment value relative to other high-yielding financial assets.

  而且资金的流动会使得这一过程互相强化。根据我们的测算,2019年中国居民贷款总额预计会达到8万多亿,比2007年增长了近6倍。而在2007年中国偏股型基金的规模就达到了3万亿,直到2019年才重新回到3万亿。资金的持续流入进一步强化了房价上涨,而资金的持续流出使得股市长期不涨。

And the flow of money will reinforce the process. According to our estimates, total loans to Chinese residents are expected to reach more than 8 billion in 2019, a nearly sixfold increase over 2007. And in 2007, the size of China's equity-oriented fund reached 3 trillion, only returning to 3 trillion in 2019. The continued inflow of capital further strengthened the rise in house prices, while the continued outflow of capital kept the stock market from rising for a long time.

  货币超发使得房产增值、股票贬值的故事不仅发生在中国,在美国的1970年代也曾经发生过。当时美国的广义货币保持在两位数增长,但是经济增速只有3%左右,货币超发产生了高通胀。而在高通胀的环境之下,房产成为最佳的保值资产,房价涨幅大致接轨货币增速。而高通胀引发了央行的货币紧缩,高利率使得股市估值大幅下跌,美股整整10年都没有涨。

The story of the value of property and the value of stocks overvalued not just in China but also in the 1970s in the United States. At the time, broad currencies in the United States were growing in double digits, but the economy was only growing at about 3%, and currency overshoots generated high inflation. In a climate of high inflation, property is the best hedged asset, with house price rises roughly in line with monetary growth. And high inflation has triggered a monetary tightening at the central bank, with high interest rates causing stock market valuations to fall sharply and US stocks not rising for a full decade.

  货币超发有利房市的逻辑相信大家都很容易理解,而且过去10年大家在中国也是这么做的。那么大家也会很自然地问一个问题,什么环境下股市才会涨?为什么19年的中国股市大涨,房市反而不怎么涨了?

The logic of currency overdrive is easy to understand, and it has been done in China over the past decade. Then people will naturally ask a question, what circumstances will the stock market rise? Why did China's stock market rise in 19 years, but not the housing market?

  观察美国的历史,我们发现了一个很有意思的现象,就是股市与经济增长的关系并不大。在过去100年,美国的经济增速越来越低,但是股市的表现反而越来越好。在1920年到1980年间,美国GDP平均增速高达%,而同期股市年均涨幅只有%。而从1980年至今,美国GDP平均增速仅为%,但是股市年均涨幅高达10%。如何解释美国股市表现与经济增长的背离?

Looking at the history of the United States, we have found a very interesting phenomenon that the stock market has little to do with economic growth. Over the past 100 years, the US economy has grown at a slower pace, but the stock market has performed better. Between 1920 and 1980, the average US GDP grew by as much as%, compared with an average stock market gain of only% over the same period. Since 1980, US GDP has grown at an average rate of only%, but the stock market has grown by 10% a year. How to explain the deviation between U.S. stock market performance and economic growth?

  我们发现,决定股市表现最关键的因素并非经济增长,而是通货膨胀。在理论上,通胀有高中低三种状态,而在美国过去100年间,这三种状态都出现过。

We find that the key factor that determines the performance of the stock market is not economic growth, but inflation. In theory, inflation is high and low in three states, all of which have occurred in the United States over the past 100 years.

  在1970年代,美国出现了高通胀,物价长期在10%左右。通胀高企导致了央行收紧货币政策,而利率上行使得美国股市的估值大幅下跌,整整10年美股都没有涨。而在1930年代,美国出现了通缩,物价长期是负的,这意味着企业的盈利每年都在下滑,没有盈利的支撑,股市也跌了十年。也就是说,无论通胀太高抑或太低,对股市都不是好事。

In the 1970s, there was high inflation in the United States, with prices at around 10 per cent for a long time. High inflation has led to tighter monetary policy at the central bank, while higher interest rates have led to a sharp fall in valuations in US stocks, which have not risen for a full decade. In the 1930s, the United States experienced deflation and long-term negative prices, which meant that corporate earnings were declining every year, supported by no gains, and the stock market fell for a decade. That is, whether inflation is too high or too low, it is not good for the stock market.

  而在过去的40年,美国的物价既不高也不低,长期保持在3%左右,美国人称之为大缓和时代,其实就是温和通胀的时代,结果出现了长达40年的股票牛市。

In the past 40 years, prices in the United States have been neither high nor low, and have remained around 3% for a long time.

  为什么温和通胀的环境下出现了股市的长牛行情?因为股市的估值稳定,同时业绩保持稳定上涨。我们可以简单分析一下:在过去40年,美国的通胀率平均大约是%,这也是投资在股市中靠涨价所获得的回报;再加上%的经济增长,合计贡献的回报率是6%,这也是美国同期的GDP名义增速以及企业盈利增速。此外,美国股市的股息率约为2%,加上去以后就是8%的回报。最后,由于通胀长期保持温和,央行不用紧缩货币政策,美国股市的估值水平在过去40年每年平均提升2%,再加上去以后就是10%的年化回报率。由此可见,温和通胀确实是最有利于股市长牛的环境。

Why is the stock market bull market in a mild inflationary environment? Because the valuation of the stock market is stable, while the performance remains stable rise. Let's make a brief analysis: the average inflation rate in the United States over the past 40 years has been about%, which is also the return of investment in the stock market on price increases; plus% economic growth, the combined return is 6%, which is the nominal GDP growth and corporate earnings growth in the same period in the United States. In addition, the US stock market has a dividend yield of about 2%, plus an 8% return. Finally, as inflation has remained moderate for a long time and the central bank has not tightened monetary policy, valuations in the US stock market have averaged 2% a year over the past 40 years, plus an annualized return of 10%. Thus, moderate inflation is indeed the most favorable environment for stock market bulls.

  问题是,很多人认为通胀难以控制,例如今年中国的猪价上涨是因为生猪疫情,而油价也是被OPEC组织等控制,这其实是从微观在看通胀,看不清方向。但如果从宏观来理解通胀,通胀就是一个货币现象,其衡量的是货币与经济增长之间的关系。

The problem is that many people think inflation is difficult to control, such as this year's pig price rise in China because of the pig epidemic, and oil prices are also controlled by OPEC and so on, which is really from the micro-view of inflation, cannot see the direction. But if inflation is understood macroscopically, inflation is a monetary phenomenon that measures the relationship between money and economic growth.

  从货币与经济增长的角度,我们发现美国70年代之所以出现高通胀,是因为当时货币发多了,货币增速高达两位数,但是经济增速只有3%左右,货币超发产生了高通胀。而在美国30年代之所以出现通缩,是因为当时货币发少了,由于大萧条之后银行大量倒闭,使得货币消失了。

From the point of view of money and economic growth, we find that the high inflation in the United States in the 1970s was due to the excessive issuance of money at that time, and the monetary growth rate was as high as double digits, but the economic growth rate was only about 3%, and the currency overshoot produced high inflation. Deflation in the US in the 1930' s was caused by a shortage of currencies, which disappeared after the Great Depression, when banks collapsed.

  而在过去的40年,美国之所以能够保持温和通胀,在于其货币增速保持稳定,M2增速长期保持在6%左右,比经济增速高出3%左右,这意味着通胀预期也非常稳定,保持在3%左右。

And the reason why the US has been able to maintain mild inflation over the past 40 years is that its currency has remained stable, while M2 has remained at around 6 per cent for a long time, about 3 per cent above economic growth, meaning inflation expectations are also very stable, at around 3 per cent.

  理解了美国过去资产价格表现的历史,就可以解释2019年中国股市大幅反弹的原因。其实也并不是因为经济表现得更好了,19年3季度的GDP增速降至6%,几乎是过去30年的新低。真正的原因其实是货币超发消失了,货币政策紧缩的预期改善了,使得股市的估值企稳回升。

Understanding the history of U.S. asset price performance in the past could explain the sharp rally in China's stock market in 2019. Nor was it because the economy performed better, with GDP growth dropping to 6% in the third quarter of 19 years, almost the latest in the past 30 years. The real reason is that monetary excesses have disappeared and expectations of monetary policy tightening have improved, stabilizing the stock market's valuation.

  过去中国股市表现不好,主因是估值下跌。过去10年股市中的企业盈利年均增速高达11%,但是货币超发使得沪深300指数的估值每年下跌8%,因而沪深300指数只有2%左右的年化回报率,加上2%的股息率,合计的年化回报率约为4%。

In the past, China's stock market was not performing well, mainly due to lower valuations. In the past 10 years, the average annual growth rate of corporate profits in the stock market has been as high as 11%. However, the over-growth of currency has caused the valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index to fall by 8%every year. Therefore, the annual return rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is about 2%and the dividend rate of 2%, the annual return rate is about 4%.

  但是当前中国的货币增速仅为%,货币增速和GDP增速的缺口在2%-3%左右,这意味着通胀预期完全可控,因而哪怕猪价大涨推高了短期通胀水平,央行也不用收紧货币政策。在19年末和20年初,央行相继下调了5bp的公开市场利率和50bp的法定存款准备金率,货币政策依然是宽松的取向。

But China's current currency growth rate is only%, with the gap between currency growth and GDP growth at around 2-3%, meaning inflation expectations are totally manageable, so the central bank doesn't have to tighten monetary policy even if a surge in pig prices drives up short-term inflation. At the end of 19 and early 20 years, with the central bank slashing its 5bp open-market rate and 50bp statutory reserve requirements, monetary policy remained loose.

  我们认为,稳健的货币政策才是本轮股市转牛的根本原因。展望未来,如果我们的货币增速维持在8%左右,就可以支撑中国经济保持5%左右的中速增长,同时通胀维持在3%左右的温和区间。那么我们投资在中国股市,一方面可以获得企业盈利每年8%的增长,还有2%的股息率回报,合计就是每年10%左右的回报率。

We believe that sound monetary policy is the root cause of this round of stock markets. Looking ahead, if our currency is growing at around 8 per cent, it will support the Chinese economy to maintain a moderate growth rate of around 5 per cent, while inflation will remain in a moderate range of around 3 per cent. So when we invest in the chinese stock market, we get an 8% annual increase in corporate earnings and a 2% dividend yield, combined with a return of about 10% a year.

  但我们需要提醒大家的是,其实当前的货币政策并未大幅放松。理由也非常简单,现在大幅放水将来必然需要大幅收紧,其实并没有意义。

But what we need to remind you is that the current monetary policy has not been greatly relaxed. The reason is also very simple, now a big release of water in the future will necessarily need a big tightening, in fact is meaningless.

  首先,降准不能被视为大幅放水。证据就是过去一年央行两次降准合计150bp,但是利率水平基本维持不变,原因在于中国的银行每年新增存款超10万亿,需要缴纳法定准备金约万亿,因而降准150bp只是正常对冲。

First, the cut should not be seen as a massive release of water. The evidence is that the central bank's twice-decrease combined has been 150 bp over the past year, but interest rates have remained largely unchanged because chinese banks need to pay a legal reserve of about trillions of new deposits each year, making the 150 bp cut a normal hedge.

  其次,利率下调5bp是为了防止利率上升,而非引导利率大幅下降。因为猪价大涨导致通胀大幅上升,如果任由其发展,可能会引发利率飙升进而加剧经济下行的压力,因而央行下调利率5bp可以稳定利率预期。但如果真要大幅放水,利率下调幅度绝不止5bp。

Second, the 5bp cut in interest rates is designed to prevent interest rates from rising, rather than to guide them down sharply. A 5bp cut in interest rates by the central bank could stabilize interest-rate expectations, as soaring pig prices lead to a sharp rise in inflation that, if allowed to develop, could trigger a spike in interest rates and exacerbate downward pressure on the economy. But if there is a big drop, interest rates will be cut by more than 5bp.

  证明中国货币政策没有大幅放松的最直观的证据,是中国过去1年的利率走势。比如标志性的10年期国债利率,在过去1年稳定在%左右,变化并不大。央行货币没有大幅放松空间的逻辑也很简单,中国的货币虽然不再超发,但也绝对没有不够用。目前货币增速与经济增速的缺口为2-3%,这意味通胀预期也在2-3%左右,因而货币政策也不存在大幅放松的空间。

The most intuitive evidence that China's monetary policy has not been drastically relaxed is China's interest rate trend over the past year. The iconic 10-year bond rate, for example, has stabilised at about% in the past year, with little change. The logic of the central bank's lack of room to relax significantly is simple, and China's currency, though no longer over-issued, is definitely not inadequate. There is no room for substantial easing in monetary policy now that the gap between currency growth and economic growth is 2-3 per cent, meaning inflation expectations are also around 2-3 per cent.

  对于我们看好资本市场长期慢牛的结论,很多人会提出一个质疑,以前中国股市也不是没有涨过,但都是快牛慢熊,凭什么这一次就变成了长期慢牛?

Many would question the conclusion that we're bullish on the long-term slowness of the capital market, and that china's stock market hasn't gone up in the past, but it's all fast bulls and slow bears. Why has it turned into a long-term slow bull this time?

  要理解股市的变化,关键在于理解货币不再超发之后,中国经济增长模式的变化,由此也带来了股市投资价值的变化。

To understand the changes in the stock market, the key is to understand the change in the growth pattern of China's economy after the currency is no longer overissued, which also brings about a change in the value of the stock market investment.

  在过去的10年中,中国曾经出现过两轮股票牛市,分别是09年以及14-15年,但是这两轮牛市给大家的印象都非常不好,因为牛市很快就结束了,之后是漫长的熊市。为何过去往往是牛短熊长?

In the past 10 years, there have been two rounds of stock bull markets in china, in 2009 and 14-15, but they have given a very bad impression, because the bull market is soon over, followed by a long bear market. Why used to be short bears?

  因而每一轮牛市都表现为周期行业领涨,09年牛市涨幅最大的三个行业是房地产、能源和材料,14-15年工业和房地产也排到涨幅榜的第三名。

Each round of bull markets is the result of a cyclical industry, with property, energy and materials among the three biggest risers in 2009, and industry and real estate coming third on the list in 14-15.

  但是靠货币驱动,意味着股市的上涨其实是靠外力在驱动。每一次货币放水之后,会带来投资增速的回升,以及周期行业业绩的改善,同时货币放水降低利率,也会推高股市的估值水平,股市在业绩和估值的双升之下,容易出现大幅上涨的快牛行情。

But money-driven means that the stock market's rise is actually driven by external forces. Every time a currency is released, it will bring a pick-up in investment growth, as well as an improvement in cyclical industry performance, while lowering interest rates will also push up valuations in the stock market, which is prone to a sharp rise in bullish prices under a double rise in performance and valuation.

  而货币放水不可持续,必然会带来通胀上升、房价泡沫和债务积累等诸多问题,等到央行收紧货币之后,就会出现投资增速的回落,以及周期行业业绩的下滑。同时货币紧缩推高利率,也会打压股市的估值,在业绩和估值双降之下,股市就会持续下跌。

When central banks tighten their currencies, there will be a slowdown in investment growth and a decline in cyclical industry performance. At the same time, a tighter currency will push up interest rates and depress valuations, which will continue to fall as performance and valuation fall.

  因此,靠货币来发展经济,因为本身不可持续,反映到股市中就是暴涨暴跌的快牛慢熊行情。时间一长,资金就持续从股市中流出了,更加加剧了股市的下跌。

Therefore, relying on the currency to develop the economy, because it is not sustainable, reflected in the stock market is the fast bull and slow bear market. Over time, money continued to flow out of the stock market, exacerbating the decline.

  为什么美国的股票牛市已经持续了40年,而且目前还在继续?原因在于其经济不是靠货币驱动,而是靠消费和创新驱动。反映到股市当中,就是过去40年涨幅最好的四大行业分别是信息科技、医疗保健、可选消费和必需消费,全部都是消费和科技行业。

Why has the stock bull market in the United States been going on for 40 years and is it still going on? The reason is that its economy is not driven by money, but by consumption and innovation. Reflected in the stock market, the top four sectors that have seen the best gains in the past 40 years are information technology, health care, discretionary and essential consumption, all in the consumer and technology sectors.

  而在中国19年的股票牛市中,领涨的三大行业分别是日常消费、信息技术和医疗保健,也全部都是消费和科技相关的行业。

And in china's 19-year stock bull market, the three leading sectors are daily consumption, information technology and health care, all of which are consumer and technology-related.

  为什么靠消费和科技领涨的股市行情可以持续?原因在于,这是一种内生的增长模式。反映到经济当中,体现为本轮经济增长的主要动力是消费和创新。2019年,社会消费总额增速稳定在8%,远超投资增速的%和出口增速的-%,是经济的核心支撑。

Why is a market led by consumption and technology sustainable? The reason is that this is an endogenous growth model. Reflected in the economy, reflected in the current round of economic growth is the main driving force of consumption and innovation. In 2019, the growth rate of total social consumption was stable at 8%, far exceeding the growth rate of investment and export growth by -%, which is the core support of the economy.

  与此同时,虽然中国的人口红利结束了,但是得益于每年1000多万大学生毕业,出现了新的人才红利,中国的企业大幅增加了研发的投入,创新成为经济增长的重要支撑。

At the same time, although China's demographic dividend is over, thanks to a new talent dividend of more than 10 million college graduates each year, Chinese companies have dramatically increased their investment in R


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